Middle Powers in the Midst of Great Power Rivalries: the Case of Kazakhstan

Abstract

The middle powers are in a complex regional and global position for strategic maneuvering due to the growing rivalry between the great powers. In contrast to the extensive literature on the competition of major powers, there is a limited number of comprehensive research devoted to the implementation of the foreign policy strategies of the middle powers aimed at preserving strategic autonomy. The analysis of Kazakhstan as a leading actor in Central Asia provides a broad assessment of the understanding of strategically significant states in world politics. Consequently, the literature review examines the elements of Kazakhstan's foreign policy, including diplomatic, economic and security aspects. By employing the theoretical framework of Gideon Rose's neoclassical realism, the study examines the internal factors of the state reflected in foreign policy. Comparative analysis of Indonesia and South Korea reveals strategic approaches for global and regional strengthening. This study examines the concept of balancing Kazakhstan's relations with China, the United States, and Russia using qualitative methods, including a discursive analysis of expert conclusions. Primary qualitative data in the form of 8 semi-structured interviews were collected from experts from analytical centers, higher education institutions and international research institutes. Based on the results obtained, the research revealed three main patterns of power imbalance in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy: approaches to diplomatic interactions, evaluation of security autonomy and level of economic reliance on major powers. Consequently, the relevance of the research is to consider the changing role of medium-sized states in shaping the international order.